Wall Street bonuses expected to soar after Trump victory

Wall Street bonuses are expected to rise by as much as one third this year as bankers eye further bumper payouts after Donald Trump’s election victory.
Year-end bonuses are forecast to increase across almost all banking divisions after a boom in equities and debt trading this year, according to analysis by Johnson Associates, the US compensation consulting firm.
The projections are largely based on the strong financial results of Wall Street firms during the first three quarters of the year. However, analysts also factored in the presidential election result after Trump’s decisive win boosted markets and business optimism.
Francine McKenzie, managing director of Johnson Associates, said: “The outcome of the election, subsequent market rise, and business optimism heading into 2025 has taken some of the uncertainty out and influenced the upper end of the ranges.”
Bond underwriters are expected to see the biggest rise in year-end bonuses, by between 25 and 35 per cent, after revenue was boosted this year on debt issuance growth. Stock underwriting bankers are forecast to receive a 15 to 25 per cent bump, while bonuses for equity sales and trading specialists are projected to rise by 15 to 20 per cent.
Investment banking advisory teams will see increases of between 5 and 10 per cent. Hedge fund bonuses are expected to increase by 5 to 15 per cent.
However, real estate banking year-end payouts are expected to be flat after the market bottomed out following a multi-year downturn. Only retail and commercial bankers are expected to receive smaller bonuses.
Alan Johnson, founder of Johnson Associates, said: “Virtually every sector in the industry is performing strongly this year, with the exception of retail and commercial banking. Firms are in a strong financial position to do what they haven’t been able to do since 2021 — reward their professionals with larger bonuses.”
Banks and hedge funds are optimistic about their prospects for 2025, with a second Trump administration expected to reduce regulatory scrutiny and boost dealmaking. The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index, which tracks the performance of the leading publicly traded US banks, has risen 10 per cent since last week’s presidential election.